Measuring electoral volatility
We begin with two questions. First, considering council by-elections since 1983, which year has seen the largest proportion of seats changing hands – in other words, the greatest electoral volatility? …
local by-elections
Local party successes
Labour’s newly elected Councillor Gurdev Singh Hayre will probably be the last to succeed in a council by-election for quite some time.
A look ahead to May’s elections
There is scope for the Conservatives to add councils and councillors to their tally, while the Liberal Democrats will expect to make advances, write Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher.
Who is better at fighting elections?
Labour’s search for a convincing explanation of its woeful General Election showing focuses mainly on Brexit and leadership.
Local council results foretold General Election
Throughout 2019, Labour’s local vote failed to impress – just five gains were made, only two of which were from the Conservatives. By contrast, Labour lost 18 seats, six of those defeats to the Conservatives.
Comparing local results and national polling
Council by-elections give insights into the detail of local politics – vacancies caused by incumbents tiring of the struggle to and consensus, parties under tension and breaking apart, issues dividing local communities, personalities battling party organisations.
A volatile electorate
The latest British Election Study report highlights just how volatile the electorate has become. When it began in the early 1960s, just one in eight voters changed their allegiance between General Elections; now some 50 per cent say they voted in different ways between 2010 and 2017.
Conservatives defend seats as turnout falls
Despite the national party’s continuing struggles at Westminster, Conservative candidates defended two seats and gained another in recent local contests.
Lib Dems gains in local contests
While Prime Minister Boris Johnson is determinedly seizing the political agenda, it is the Liberal Democrats who are making the electoral weather.
Parlous state of party politics
So far, local government has avoided most of the extremes of turbulence that seem to characterise current national politics.