Wigan’s Ashton ward has established an unenviable record, recording the lowest turnout in any council by-election: just 5.3 per cent of the registered electorate voted in Labour’s Andrew Bullen.
In-person voters faced temperatures well below freezing, and some postal votes may have been affected by postal strikes (postal voting has increased but polling station voters remain in the majority).
Ashton beats the 5.7 per cent turnout in Tamworth’s Stonydelph ward, a record that stood for 24 years.
It’s unsurprising that both contests were held in December. Monthly average turnout across the last 40 years shows December is the lowest, at just 25 per cent. When monthly turnout is ranked, the bottom four positions are October through January.
While the weather may have been impacting turnout, it was business as usual regarding gains and losses.
The Conservatives’ attempt to defend 12 seats saw them fail in nine. That might have been 10 had not Rob Tynan saved the party’s blushes in Warrington’s marginal Rixton and Woolston ward, winning by just three votes.
The Liberal Democrats inflicted most damage, making six gains, with Labour gaining three.
Conservative struggles in Surrey continue. Two further defeats – one for a county seat in Spelthorne, another for a district seat in Waverley – made it nine losses out of 10 in 2022.
In the contest for Brighstone, Calbourne and Shalfleet ward on the Isle of Wight, there was a large swing towards the Liberal Democrats of more than 21 per cent.
It was a different story in Test Valley, where just two candidates contested Andover Romans ward, a far cry from the 10 that fought in 2019. The Conservative vote rose by three percentage points but the rise for the Liberal Democrats was 10 times greater.
Two vacancies in King’s Lynn and West Norfolk saw rather different outcomes.
Labour were returned unopposed in the district council seat of Gaywoods Clock but in the Gaywood North and Central county division just over 100 votes separated first from third. The Conservatives won the 2021 election with a comfortable majority over Labour. However, in July 2021 the Liberal Democrats succeeded in the Gaywood South division, from third place.
A repeat performance saw Liberal Democrat David Sayers edging out Labour by a mere eight votes with the defending party relegated to third place this time.
The Conservatives were trying to defend a lead of just 58 votes over Liberal Democrats in North Devon’s Landkey ward. There was little chance of doing that with Victoria Nel, narrowly beaten in 2019, standing again.
This win gives the Liberal Democrats majority council control.
Riding high in the national polls and retaining two parliamentary seats comfortably, Labour is under pressure to bring that form to council by-elections.
The first win, gaining Sutton ward in Bassetlaw, is symbolic because Labour lost the constituency in 2019, recording its largest collapse in vote share and losing the seat for the first time since 1935.
Labour’s two other gains were on the south coast.
Southampton’s Bitterne ward had been won by the Conservatives since 2018 but in 2022 the majority was cut to just six percentage points.
On paper this looked straightforward, but Labour’s Yvonne Frampton only sneaked the win by a margin of 13 votes.
Labour was trying to overturn a similar Conservative majority to win one of the two Conservative seats in Brighton and Hove’s Wish ward. This was accomplished with rather more ease, with Labour’s vote double that of the Conservatives.
Independents had mixed fortunes, retaining three seats, including one in Ashfield, but losing to all three main parties, including the Conservatives in South Holland’s Spalding Monk’s House ward.
In Colchester’s Highwoods ward, two resignations saw Labour take one seat, Liberal Democrats the other. There was a gap of 151 votes between the two Labour candidates (placed first and second on the ballot paper) and one of 252 votes for the Liberal Democrat pairing.
| local by-elections |
|---|
| Amber Valley, Wingfield CON HELD 29.0% over Lib Dem Turnout 22.9% |
| Arun, Arundel and Walberton GREEN HELD 17.7% over Con Turnout 27.1% |
| Ashfield, Hucknall Central ASH IND HELD 24.0% over Lab Turnout 23.6% |
| Bassetlaw, Sutton LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 14.3% over Con Turnout 32.8% |
| Brighton & Hove, Wish LAB GAIN FROM CON 29.4% over Con Turnout 34.2% |
| Colchester, Highwoods 1 LAB/1 LIB DEM GAIN FROM IND 1.2% over Lib Dem Turnout 21.4% |
| Ipswich, Priory Heath LAB HELD 31.1% over Con Turnout 16.6% |
| Isle Of Wight, Brighstone, Calbourne and Shalfleet LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 29.1% over Con Turnout 37.8% |
| King’s Lynn & West Norfolk, Gaywood Clock LAB HELD Unopposed |
| Lincolnshire, Spalding West IND HELD 26.5% over Con Turnout 13.8% |
| Medway, Peninsula IND HELD 30.0% over Con Turnout 18.7% |
| Norfolk, Gaywood North and Central LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 0.8% over Lab Turnout 13.7% |
| North Devon, Landkey LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 15.7% over Con Turnout 25.9% |
| Pendle, Barrowford and Pendleside CON HELD 21.6% over Lab Turnout 20.6% |
| Sefton, Linacre LAB HELD 63.1% over not declared Turnout 8.8% |
| Southampton, Bitterne LAB GAIN FROM CON 0.7% over Con Turnout 18.0% |
| South Holland, Spalding Monks House CON GAIN FROM IND 1.6% over Ind Turnout 17.8% |
| South Kesteven, Toller LIB DEM GAIN FROM IND 20.2% over Con Turnout 20.8% |
| Surrey, Sunbury Common and Ashford Common LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 0.7% over Con Turnout 17.5% |
| Test Valley, Andover Romans LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 15.3% over Con Turnout 9.7% |
| Warrington, Rixton and Woolston CON HELD 0.2% over Lab Turnout 20.5% |
| Waverley, Chiddingfold & Dunsfold LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 36.3% over Con Turnout 32.1% |
| Wigan, Ashton LAB HELD 31.6% over Con Turnout 5.3% |