Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher - first magazine for councillors

graphic of cut-out head shots of different men and women set in varying sized boxes in the colours of the main political parties - red, blue, turquoise, purple and green

Multiple challengers affecting election outcomes

by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher

The first by-elections of the year suggest a continuation of the 2025 pattern when new records were set.

graphic of one big mid-blue arrow pointing right against a flow of many smaller white arrows pointing left against a lilac backdrop

Undermining the established order

by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher

Last year established a new record for the rate at which by-election seats are changing hands.

graphic of wide semi-circle of differently colour dots representing different political parties, e.g. red for Labour, blue for Conservative etc

Multi-party politics

by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher

The new multi-party politics is having a noticeable impact on the proportion of seats changing hands and the low share of the vote often needed for victory.

Modest advances

by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher

It is little wonder that those attending the recent Labour and Conservative party conferences spent much of their time looking over their shoulders at Reform UK.

graphic of one figure using a loud speaker and another posting a voting slip in a ballot box

Robust support

by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher

Local by-elections continue to see Reform UK mainly, but not exclusively, progress against both main parties. Volatility abounds, with 16 of 35 seats changing hands.

graphic of cartoon hands holding pieces of paper labelled ‘vote’ in front of ballot box

Change in prospect

by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher

The Reform UK surge in local government continues.

graphic of cartoon figures rowing with long black paddles while crouched on white arrows going in opposite directions against an orange backdrop

Turnover accelerating

by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher

The 1 May elections saw hundreds of seats changing hands, but recent by-elections show turnover accelerating; of 23 recent by-elections, 61 per cent resulted in the defending party being defeated.