A new electoral politics
In little more than a year, the pattern of local government in England has been upended.
Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher
Multi-party politics makes results difficult to call
With almost a third of all English council seats falling vacant on 7 May, and nearly half the electorate able to cast a vote, there is scope for quite radical change to the pattern of local government.
Winners and losers
The final quarter of 2025 established a record, with 62 per cent of by-elections lost by the defending party.
Comparing retention rates
Labour’s gain of Durham’s Murton ward from Reform UK has naturally attracted attention, since it runs contrary to the general trend of Labour struggling to retain seats.
Multiple challengers affecting election outcomes
The first by-elections of the year suggest a continuation of the 2025 pattern when new records were set.
Undermining the established order
Last year established a new record for the rate at which by-election seats are changing hands.
Multi-party politics
The new multi-party politics is having a noticeable impact on the proportion of seats changing hands and the low share of the vote often needed for victory.
Modest advances
It is little wonder that those attending the recent Labour and Conservative party conferences spent much of their time looking over their shoulders at Reform UK.
Robust support
Local by-elections continue to see Reform UK mainly, but not exclusively, progress against both main parties. Volatility abounds, with 16 of 35 seats changing hands.
