On 2 May, 107 councils across England go to the polls, with more than 2,600 seats at stake.
Twenty-one councils are implementing boundary changes and, taking those into account, Labour and the Conservatives defend just short of 1,000 seats each, the Liberal Democrats about 400, and the Greens a little over 100.
Although this is a small cycle of local authority elections, a swathe of mayoral and police and crime commissioner contests mean that every elector in England and Wales will have the opportunity to cast a ballot.
Most vacancies occurring this year were last fought in 2021, when the Conservatives enjoyed their most successful set of local elections since 2008. They have been on a downward slope since, and recent local by-elections illustrate their plight.
Our figures suggest they have lost more than half of all seats defended in the past 12 months, for a net tally of 19 losses. In terms of vote share, the Conservatives are also an average of more than 11 percentage points down in those by-elections where the previous May contest was in 2021.
With a general election looming, though, it is relevant to point out that the Liberal Democrats have been more successful locally in many parts of the country, with their share up by 14 points compared with a less than four-point increase for Labour.
The Conservatives look vulnerable in perhaps half of the 18 councils with elections that the party currently controls. Its overall majority in Thurrock was lost in March following the suspension of two councillors who voted against the budget.
Elsewhere, it is those authorities with all-out elections that pose the greatest threat.
In Dudley, the Conservatives currently enjoy a double-figure majority on the council, but they and Labour tied with 12 wards each last year. A small additional swing will see Labour home and dry. Nearby Walsall looks safer, however, with only a third of seats falling vacant and a more robust Conservative performance in 2023.
“Every elector in England and Wales will have the opportunity to cast a ballot”
Both councils could also be pivotal in the battle for the West Midlands Combined Authority mayoralty, where Conservative incumbent Andy Street faces four opponents in what is now a first-past-the-post contest.
In Dorset, Conservative control is on a knife-edge as elections are held for the first time since the inaugural contests in 2019.
Labour is a bit-part player across most of the area, but the challenge of the Liberal Democrats and the Greens should not be discounted.
The Conservatives did comfortably hold on in a by-election here in January this year, but were soundly ousted by the Greens in another in 2022.
Among the districts, the Liberal Democrats have been slowly chipping away at the Conservative majority in Gloucester in by-elections since 2021. The Conservatives can now afford to lose no more than a single additional seat.
In Rushmoor, in Hampshire, where 13 of 39 seats fall vacant, the Conservatives won 11 wards in 2021, but only four last year. A repeat of that and Labour could take over.
Labour has been picking up support in Adur, in West Sussex, which elects half its councillors, in a way similar to neighbouring Worthing, with which it shares services. Worthing was won by the party in 2022. Labour’s share of the vote in Adur increased by 10 percentage points between 2021 and 2022, but making the two gains needed to oust the Conservatives may be a challenge.
All-out elections following boundary changes could spell a radical turnover in Harlow, Nuneaton & Bedworth, and Redditch.
Labour won most seats in both Harlow and Redditch on the old boundaries in 2023, and will hope that is a good omen for a direct change in control.
In Nuneaton, which normally has biennial elections, the Conservatives have regularly polled more than 50 per cent of the vote in recent years, but the council has been Labour for most of its existence. Once again, the candidate list here is dominated by the two main parties.
Basildon is similarly vulnerable on paper, but Labour has nominated a single candidate in eight of the 14 three-member wards, suggesting that it thinks its chances are slim.
Much as it will welcome what seem like probable gains of both councils and councillors as it consolidates its position as the largest party in local government, there are a number of authorities where Labour needs to look over its shoulder to its own ranks and supporters.
In Kirklees, the resignation of four councillors has left Labour control on a knife-edge. The only one whose seat falls vacant this year is not standing for re-election, though.
In Rochdale, the Workers’ Party has candidates in 13 wards following George Galloway’s parliamentary by-election success in late February.
In Burnley, 11 Labour councillors resigned to sit as Independents late last year, and, in Pendle, Labour’s entire representation on the council went the same way in April.
In both cases, some of those involved are standing against their former party on 2 May. In Pendle, Labour is not even putting up a candidate against two of its former colleagues.
Such behaviour is not confined to the north of England. In Hastings, where Labour would have fancied its chance of taking control based on 2022’s results, six councillors have left the party over ‘policy differences’, with one standing for re-election as an Independent this year.
If Labour has a tendency to underperform in local elections, for the Liberal Democrats they have remained the party’s high spot, even in the difficult years following the national coalition government.
They will expect to retain all 10 of the councils they control that are holding elections, including Hull, where they made a recent by-election gain from Labour, and Three Rivers, in Hertfordshire, where they won seven of the 13 wards last year.
All-out elections in both Dorset and Wokingham offer the party further opportunities for advancement. Greens and Independents may present an obstacle to an overall majority in Dorset, but Wokingham is essentially a two-party battle, with the Liberal Democrats outpolling the Conservatives and winning eight wards to their four in 2023.
The 2 May elections may also be impacted by the Greens from the left and Reform from the right.
Last year’s contests proved a mixed bag for the Greens. They achieved their first ever overall majority in Mid Suffolk, but their second spell as the lead party in Brighton & Hove came to a rather ignominious end.
Their hopes this time focus on Bristol, where they are already the largest party and the post of elected mayor (Labour held) is being abolished. There are several wards that the Greens split with Labour in 2021; winning all the seats in each of them would put them close to control.
Reform’s profile has increased since it contested fewer than one in 20 seats last year and won only in the special circumstances of Derby, where its candidates were already sitting UKIP councillors. This time, the party is contesting every vacancy in Hartlepool and Sunderland, and most in a handful of other authorities – a little more than 10 per cent of seats overall.
Any impact in Hartlepool will be especially interesting. Party Leader Richard Tice came third here at the December 2019 general election, with more than a quarter of the vote, and, at the same time, the council was under the effective control of self-designated Brexit party councillors.
England local elections 2024
2,636* seats in 107 councils (21 with boundary changes) comprising 31 metropolitan boroughs, 18 unitary councils and 58 shire districts
| Con | Lab | Lib Dem | Ind/Other | No overall control | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current control | 18 | 45 | 10 | 34 | |
| Seats being defended* | 985 | 965 | 410 | 276 |
*Accounting for boundary changes but not casual vacancies/defections
In addition, there are 10 combined authority mayoral elections (including three inaugural contests), one direct election for a city mayor, and police and crime commissioner elections across England and Wales.