Labour’s victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West parliamentary by-election ensures that the imminent contests in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth will be examined for further evidence of a resurgence.
Yet, regular readers of this column know that Labour’s successes in local by-elections have often been tempered by losses. Once again, Labour gain a seat only to lose another.
The gain was in the Lancashire county division of Chorley Rural West, a vacancy caused by the death of Conservative Keith Iddon, who was at the time Chairman of the county council.
He won the newly created division easily in 2017 but Labour closed the gap four years later. The absence of any Green candidate this time around probably helped Labour’s cause.
Iddon had also been elected for Chorley Council in 2021 and his death meant a second vacancy, this time for the borough’s Croston, Mawdesley and Euxton South ward. But any prospect of a second Labour win was thwarted by Conservative Debra Platt, who now joins her husband as a fellow councillor for the ward.
Labour’s step backwards occurred in the contest for Colchester’s Highwoods ward.
A double by-election in December 2022 produced a split result with Labour and Liberal Democrats each taking a seat from Independents. The Labour winner then resigned her seat seven months later with the Liberal Democrats capturing the seat at the second attempt.
A similar early resignation might have brought an upset in Tamworth’s Amington ward, where electors will be voting in the parliamentary by-election.
Three months after securing victory, Labour’s Liam Bone, who in a straight fight with the Conservatives won his seat by just 24 votes, was forced to resign because he accepted a civil service post that is politically restricted.
His defeated Conservative opponent in May, Donna Summers, stood again, but crucially so too did Michelle Cook, who had fought and won here as a Conservative in 2019. Cook, standing as an Independent, polled 16 per cent of the vote, enabling Labour to secure the win.
A second Liberal Democrat gain in Milton Keynes was hardly in doubt. The electoral history of Newport Pagnell South ward shows that the 2021 election, which returned Conservative Scot Balazs, was exceptional. Before and since, the ward has elected Liberal Democrats.
Conservative candidates have been having a generally challenging time of late.
In Minster Cliffs, it was the turn of the Swale Independents to inflict the damage. The result last May saw the Conservatives win two of the three seats with the sole Swale Independent topping the poll.
This latest vacancy offered two recently defeated candidates a chance to try their luck again. It was Peter Macdonald who comfortably won the race, with the Conservative edged into third place behind Labour.
There was more than just a vacancy for the Conservatives to defend in North Yorkshire’s Hutton Rudby and Osmotherley, which lies within Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Richmond parliamentary constituency.
The Conservative cause was not helped by the withdrawal of the Labour-nominated candidate, providing a better opportunity for the Liberal Democrats.
However, context matters in this case. At the inaugural election in 2022, the seat was won by the Conservative with a 40 per cent vote share while a candidate with no party description placed second with 29 per cent.
In fact, Bridget Fortune, the winner, and runner-up David Hugill, were both Hambleton-based Conservative councillors, each chasing the same seat. When Fortune resigned, local Conservatives picked Hugill as her replacement.
The relatively high turnout suggests hard campaigns were fought by the two lead protagonists. The win ensures the Conservatives continue to have half the council seats and benefit from the chair’s casting vote.
| local by-elections | |
|---|---|
| Barking and Dagenham, Mayesbrook LAB HELD 13.9% over Con Turnout 14.2% | |
| Chorley, Croston, Mawdesley and Euxton South CON HELD 9.2% over Lab Turnout 29.6% | |
| Colchester, Highwoods LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB 8.1% over Lab Turnout 19.7% | |
| Haringey, South Tottenham LAB HELD 52.8% over Con Turnout 20.2% | |
| Haringey, White Hart Lane LAB HELD 43.2% over Con Turnout 19.6% | |
| Hull, Bricknell LAB HELD 12.9% over Lib Dem Turnout 34.8% | |
| Lambeth, Vauxhall LAB HELD 14.1% over Lib Dem Turnout 21.7% | |
| Lancashire, Chorley Rural West LAB GAIN FROM CON 11.5% over Con Turnout 29.1% | |
| Lincolnshire, Carholme LAB HELD 11.6% over Lib Dem Turnout 25.4% | |
| Liverpool, Fazakerley East LAB HELD 10.8% over Ind Turnout 20.3% | |
| Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell South LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON Turnout 16.5% over Lab Turnout 26.7% | |
| North Yorkshire, Hutton Rudby and Osmotherley CON HELD 10.5% over Lib Dem Turnout 38.8% | |
| South Norfolk, Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross LIB DEM HELD 13.0% over Con Turnout 24.5% | |
| South Norfolk, South Wymondham LIB DEM HELD 2.2% over Con Turnout 16.8% | |
| Swale, Minster Cliffs SWALE IND GAIN FROM CON 5.1% over Lab Turnout 17.9% | |
| Tamworth, Amington LAB HELD 9.2% over Con Turnout 23.8% | |
| Wolverhampton, Bushbury South and Low Hill LAB HELD 37.1% over Con Turnout 12% |
- For more detailed analysis of these and other recent by-election results, please view the by-elections spreadsheet.