Sixteen of the latest batch of 33 councillor vacancies (48 per cent) saw a seat change hands
Strangely, given the current state of national politics, a quarter of turnovers brought Conservative victories. However, the party generally suffers, losing 54 per cent of its by-election defences during 2022, defeats surpassed only by 1994 (69 per cent of seats lost) and 1985 (56 per cent).
Labour made seven gains from the Conservatives, averaging a 13 per cent swing. Most impressive was Broadland’s Thorpe St Andrew North West where Calix Eden overcame a 27 per cent Conservative majority.
Labour gained three seats in the North West. Blackburn and Darwen’s Conservatives were faced with a difficult task in defending Darwen South. They tried to disown their candidate before a vote was cast in May 2021, following controversial social media posts.
Despite this, Andrew Walker was duly elected but prompted this by-election because of disqualification under the six-month rule. Labour’s Matt Jackson had cut the Conservative majority when finishing second last May but succeeded this time.
Voting is close in Blackpool’s Greenlands ward, with a few votes often separating second from third in the two-member ward.
In 2019, a gap of just 16 votes gave the Conservatives the second seat. Labour won this time despite no movement in its vote share as the Conservative vote swung to the Liberal Democrat.
It was unlikely that the Conservatives could defend Burnley’s Rosehill with Burnley Wood ward, given 2021 was the only time in 20 years that a Conservative had won there.
The formbook suggested a Liberal Democrat win, its candidate polling 56 per cent in last May’s election. Labour’s win, albeit by the slender margin of nine votes, was unexpected, but the Conservative candidate finishing third was less so.
The Liberal Democrats gained two seats from the Conservatives, one in Guildford, the other in Wiltshire.
Guildford’s Tillinbourne ward elected a Conservative and a Green with a Liberal Democrat placed last in 2019. Green hopes of taking both ward seats disappeared under pressure from a Liberal Democrat campaign which brought a 35-point increase in vote share.
The win in Wiltshire’s Salisbury St Paul’s ward, where the Liberal Democrat ran a close second in 2021, was made easier when the Greens chose not to contest the vacancy. The successful candidate, Sam Charleston, received almost two in three votes cast.
Controversy surrounded a Liberal Democrat defeat in Kingston’s Green Lane and St James ward.
Containing a large Muslim population, primarily of the Ahmadiyya strand of Islam, the ward split last May, choosing a Liberal Democrat alongside the Kingston Independent Residents’ Group (KIRG).
James Giles, former manager of George Galloway’s by-election campaign in Batley and Spen, issued a by-election election leaflet criticising the Liberal Democrat candidate, Mahmood Rafiq, a prominent member of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Association.
The leaflet was denounced by other parties but KIRG’s candidate, Yvonne Treacy, who lost last May, took the seat.
Another Conservative defeat, to an Independent in Nottinghamshire, meant total losses of 10 seats and seven held. However, the party did make four election gains of its own.
The first was Epping Forest’s Waltham Abbey South West ward, a vacancy prompted by the disqualification of Green councillor, Dave Plummer, who had a surprise victory in 2019 in the Conservative-dominated ward.
Plummer fell victim to a misinterpretation of attendance rules believing that digital access to council meetings still counted. Choosing to stand for his own vacancy, Plummer was provided a straight fight with the Conservatives but lost by 49 votes.
The Conservatives have been gaining seats from Labour in wards with large Asian populations. Leicester’s normally rock-solid North Evington ward had a by-election in 2021 which attracted nine candidates and a large swing towards the Conservatives.
There were only five names on the ballot for this contest but Labour’s choice, Rajul Tejura, attracted criticism from some parts of the community. Labour slipped to third place, behind Conservative and Green candidates, with a high turnout of 45 per cent.
Liberal Democrats lost seats to the Conservatives with local issues possibly costing them crucial votes in one of the contests.
On the day that former Prime Minister Liz Truss announced her resignation, Conservative candidate Harry Davis, aged just 18 years, was winning Fareham’s Portchester East ward by a mere 25 votes after missing out in last May’s elections.
Last May, South Cambridgeshire’s Longstanton ward narrowly elected two Liberal Democrats who then both resigned citing personal reasons.
The Conservative campaign opposed proposals for a congestion charge in Cambridge, which lies close to Longstanton, with vehicles liable to pay £5 a day to enter the city.
Voting produced a split decision with the Liberal Democrats failing to keep both seats by 33 votes.
| local by-elections |
|---|
| Blackburn With Darwen, Darwen South LAB GAIN FROM CON 0.6% over Con Turnout 19.9% |
| Blackpool, Greenlands LAB GAIN FROM CON 2.8% over Con Turnout 23.1% |
| Bolsover, Pinxton LAB HELD 26.6% over Con Turnout 18.5% |
| Braintree, Braintree South LAB GAIN FROM CON 6.7% over Con Turnout 17.4% |
| Braintree, Coggleshall IND HELD 9.4% over Con Turnout 28.3% |
| Broadland, Thorpe St. Andrew North West LAB GAIN FROM CON 13.6% over Con Turnout 27.9% |
| Broxtowe, Greasley CON HELD 6.1% over Lab Turnout 24.4% |
| Burnley, Rosehill With Burnley Wood LAB GAIN FROM CON 1.0% over Lib Dem Turnout 20.6% |
| Cannock Chase, Cannock West CON HELD 20.8% over Lab Turnout 22.0% |
| Croydon, Selsdon Vale and Forestdale CON HELD 21.3% over Green Turnout 29.6% |
| Derbyshire, Long Eaton LAB GAIN FROM CON 17.6% over Con Turnout 22.8% |
| East Devon, Newton Poppleford and Harpford IND GAIN FROM IND EDA 47.7% over Lab Turnout 46.1% |
| Epping Forest, Waltham Abbey South West CON GAIN FROM GREEN 10.4% over Green Turnout 14.2% |
| Fareham, Portchester East CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM 1.0% over Lib Dem Turnout 28.7% |
| Gloucester, Tuffley CON HELD 1.0% over Lib Dem Turnout 32.3% |
| Guildford, Tillingbourne LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 25.1% over Con Turnout 32.0% |
| Hartlepool, Throston LAB HELD 19.2% over Ind Turnout 14.6% |
| Kingston Upon Thames, Green Lane and St James KIRG GAIN FROM LIB DEM 11.3% over Lib Dem Turnout 40.2% |
| Leicester, North Evington CON GAIN FROM LAB 23.8% over Green Turnout 44.9% |
| Lichfield, Chasetown LAB GAIN FROM CON 46.5% over Con Turnout 13.3% |
| Monmouthshire, Devauden CON HELD 8.8% over Lab Turnout 51.2% |
| Nottinghamshire, Eastwood IND GAIN FROM CON 1.4% over Lab Turnout 30.3% |
| Oldham, Hollinwood LAB HELD 4.9% over Con Turnout 21.1% |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf, Abercynon LAB HELD 71.4% over Plaid Cymru Turnout 14.2% |
| Sandwell, Wednesbury South LAB HELD 12.0% over Con Turnout 16.3% |
| South Cambridgeshire, Longstanton CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM/ LIB DEM HELD 0.4% over Con Turnout 31.9% |
| South Kesteven, Bourne East CON HELD 21.9% over Lab Turnout 20.3% |
| South Kesteven, Grantham St Wulfram's CON HELD 5.7% over Ind Turnout 22.4% |
| St Helens, Moss Bank LAB HELD 6.5% over Lib Dem Turnout 15.6% |
| Stockport, Edgeley and Cheadle Heath LAB HELD 15.0% over Lib Dem Turnout 20.8% |
| Suffolk, Beccles GREEN HELD 49.7% over Con Turnout 25.7% |
| Wiltshire, Salisbury St Paul’s LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 46.3% over Lab Turnout 33.0% |
For more details on these and other recent by-election results, please view our elections spreadsheet.