Undermining the established order

Each of the final three quarters of the year saw more seats change party control than were held. This level of volatility has only been recorded nine times, and never before over such a long sequence. 

Seat turnover in the final quarter reached 62 per cent, matching the previous record set between January-March 1986.

The latest contests further underline Reform UK’s capacity to undermine the established order as the party took seats from Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Independents.

It comfortably defended its own two vacancies, although vote share fell in both. These results push Reform’s total by-election gains to more than 100 since the last general election.

Such momentum explains why Reform leads opposition to any further postponement of council elections, a move that limits its ability to strengthen its local government presence.

Three gains from Labour – in Sunderland, Darlington, and Blackpool – highlight the scale of the challenge facing Labour as next May’s elections approach.

Sunderland’s Hetton ward typically votes Labour, with Reform polling just 11 per cent in 2024. That old pattern changed as Labour’s vote fell by 25 points, while Reform’s rose by 35.

In Darlington’s Red Hall and Lingfield ward, Reform, which had not stood there in 2023, recorded a 38 per cent swing in its favour.

In Blackpool Greenlands, both Labour and the Conservatives were squeezed, with Reform’s vote matching the combined total of the two parties.

Elsewhere, in South Kesteven’s Aveland ward, the Conservatives were unopposed in 2019 and won comfortably in 2023, but were edged out by Reform this time, by just 10 votes.

The Conservatives won both Pakefield seats in Suffolk in 2021 but lost one to Labour at a by-election held on general election day 2024. Reform secured almost half the vote in this second vacancy.

While Reform is taking seats from Labour and the Conservatives, its gains from the Liberal Democrats are fewer.

One such was Middlesbrough’s two-member Nunthorpe ward. Elected as a Liberal Democrat-Conservative split in 2023, the by-election saw Reform squeeze both parties and secure a narrow 13-vote win.

Reform also gained two former Independent seats – Hunstanton in King’s Lynn and West Norfolk, and Belmont in South Kesteven.

The Liberal Democrats recorded two gains from the Conservatives in Devon – Torridge’s Winkleigh ward and Seaton in East Devon. In both cases, the Conservative vote was reduced by Reform’s presence.

Seat exchanges in the opposite direction remain rare. However, the resignation of a Liberal Democrat councillor in Market Harborough’s Logan ward created an opening, which the Conservatives seized with a 20-point swing.

local by-elections
Blackpool, Greenlands
REF GAIN FROM LAB
21.8% over Con
Turnout 24.7%
Broxtowe, Stapleford South East
BROX ALLIANCE GAIN FROM LAB
12.8% over Ref
Turnout 28.2%
Caerphilly, Penyrheol
PLAID CYMRU HELD
33.6% over Ref
Turnout 16.3%
Cornwall, St Columb Minor and Colan
REF HELD
6.4% over Ind
Turnout 27.7%
Darlington, Red Hall and Lingfield
REF GAIN FROM LAB
20.3% over Con
Turnout 27.5%
Derbyshire, Long Eaton North
REF HELD
0.9% over Con
Turnout 29.0%
East Devon, Exmouth Halsdon
LIB DEM HELD
7.4% over Ref
Turnout 25.5%
East Devon, Seaton
LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON
11.7% over Ref
Turnout 33.4%
Harborough, Logan
CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM
19.9% over Lib Dem
Turnout 30.5%
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Hunstanton
REF GAIN FROM IND
3.7% over Lib Dem
Turnout 33.0%
Lichfield, Armitage With Handsacre
CON HELD
14.7% over Ref
Turnout 22.4%
Middlesbrough, Nunthorpe
REF GAIN FROM LIB DEM
0.8% over Lib Dem
Turnout 35.8%
Pendle, Barnoldswick
LIB DEM HELD
33.6% over Ref
Turnout 25.8%
South Kesteven, Aveland
REF GAIN FROM CON
1.4% over Con
Turnout 35.7%
South Kesteven, Belmont
REF GAIN FROM IND
0.3% over Con
Turnout 20.9%
South Ribble, Broad Oak
LIB DEM HELD
44.5% over Ref
Turnout 35.3%
Stockton-On-Tees, Eaglescliffe West
CON HELD
36.9% over Ref
Turnout 35.8%
Suffolk, Pakefield
REF GAIN FROM CON
29.7% over Green
Turnout 22.6%
Sunderland, Hetton
REF GAIN FROM LAB
21.2% over Ind
Turnout 29.3%
Torridge, Winkleigh
LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON
9.5% over Ref
Turnout 41.8%
Watford, Tudor
LIB DEM HELD
26.0% over Ref
Turnout 30.5%
  • For the full results, and additional data on other local by-election results, please download LGA council results December 2025
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