The first by-elections of the year suggest a continuation of the 2025 pattern when new records were set.
A key feature of last year was multiple challengers; in more than a third of cases, ballot papers listed between six and eight candidates.
The average percentage of vote share required to win a seat dropped to just 44 per cent, and more than a handful of seats saw the winner poll less than three in 10 votes.
Results were often close. The long-term average percentage gap between first and second-placed candidates is 21 per cent, whereas last year’s average saw the margin of victory fall to just 16 per cent.
More vacancies than ever before (80 per cent) arose because of the incumbent’s resignation rather than death or disqualification, although half of this very small sample of January by-elections followed the death of a sitting councillor.
Already, some councillors in areas affected by local government reorganisation and the postponement of elections have resigned in protest. If others were to follow, it could lead to a higher number of by-elections than is usual.
By-election results and national polls agree that support for both major parties is hovering around the 20 per cent mark, eclipsed by Reform UK’s momentum and its ability to win seats even in areas it has not contested before.
The Liberal Democrats are not immune, as the result in Gosport’s Bridgemary ward attests. This is normally a contest between the defending party and the Conservatives. Reform contested for the first time, squeezed all of its competitors (especially the Conservatives), winning a 43 per cent share of the vote and a winning margin of just 29 votes.
Amber Valley’s last five by-elections have seen seats change hands. The latest district seat to switch is Codnor, Langley Mill & Aldercar ward.
In 2023, Labour took control of the council after benefiting from a split that saw Conservatives defect to Reform. But that dynamic has now been replaced with falling support for both major parties and a Reform gain courtesy of a 22 per cent swing against Labour.
The second by-election in Amber Valley was for the county division of Horsley. Reform gained control of Derbyshire last May, winning 42 of 64 seats.
The party retained Long Eaton North division in a December by-election but lost Horsley to the Greens, although retaining much of its previous vote share.
The drop in the combined share for Labour and the Conservatives mirrored the rise for the winning Green candidate.
Both of these contests saw the first candidates standing for Advance UK, formerly the Integrity party, led by Ben Habib, a former deputy leader of Reform UK.
The district council contest produced the better result with the new party taking third place and one in eight votes. A feature of coming months may be the battle for votes between Reform and Advance.
An excellent example of what can happen when multiple candidates challenge is the by-election in Flintshire’s Leeswood ward.
The vacancy arose after the death of Labour’s Ray Hughes, a veteran of 50 years’ service in local government.
Eight candidates contested the vacancy, including Flintshire People’s Voice, a group that split from Labour. Whether a consequence of this schism or not, Labour’s vote fell, pushing it from first to fourth place.
Reform’s Kristian Salkeld withstood the competition from two Independents for his victory. The winner’s share was just 22.3 per cent of the poll, with 25 votes separating the first three home.
The Rissingtons, a ward in Cotswold District Council, is normally an example of cooperation between the Greens and Liberal Democrats. Both parties contested the 2015 election, won by the Conservatives.
In 2019, when the Greens captured the seat, and again in 2023 when they retained it, the Liberal Democrats stood aside.
This vacancy saw cooperation suspended. The effect was dramatic, with the Green vote falling from 57 per cent to just 5 per cent (from first to fourth place) while the Liberal Democrats won the seat convincingly with 37 per cent from a standing start.
| local by-elections |
|---|
| Amber Valley, Codnor, Langley Mill & Aldercar REF GAIN FROM LAB 27.4% over Lab | Turnout 18.3% |
| Cheshire West and Chester, Willaston and Thornton CON HELD 36.6% over Lab | Turnout 42.7% |
| Cotswold, The Rissingtons LIB DEM GAIN FROM GREEN 6.2% over Con | Turnout 42.8% |
| Derbyshire, Horsley GREEN GAIN FROM REF 8.1% over Ref | Turnout 29.4% |
| Flintshire, Leeswood REF GAIN FROM LAB 3.1% over Ind | Turnout 44.0% |
| Gosport, Bridgemary REF GAIN FROM LIB DEM 2.0% over Lib Dem | Turnout 32.0% |
| CON HELD 5.2% over Green | Turnout 37.6% |
| York, Heworth LAB HELD 16.6% over Ref | Turnout 31.6% |
- For the full results, and additional data on other local by-election results, please download LGA council results February 2026.