It was all going reasonably smoothly for local Conservative candidates.
At the end of November, they recorded three gains – two from Labour (one by the margin of eight votes) and another from Independent in Wyre Forest. A fourth eluded them when Labour held on by one vote in Wandsworth’s Bedford ward.
Then, on 30 November, the Daily Mirror reported a party being held in Downing Street in December 2020, despite the Prime Minister banning such events in the capital only days before.
Following this revelation, the Conservatives lost four of the six council seats they were defending two days later.
Liberal Democrats seized two seats in Lancaster, with the Greens and Labour winning in Wealden and Worthing respectively.
Against the run of play, there was a Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat in North Norfolk, with candidate Matthew Taylor emerging a surprise winner.
Simultaneously, in the Old Bexley and Sidcup parliamentary by-election, the Conservative majority was cut to 4,000. There, the turnout of 33.5 per cent was the second lowest for a Conservative seat since the war.
Matters went from bad to worse. A widely circulated video of a mock interview showed Downing Street officials at the time joking about the alleged party.
This resulted in the resignation on 8 December of Allegra Stratton, the former 10 Downing Street press secretary and COP26 spokesperson.
The following day, the Conservatives lost five of six seats they were defending. In Rotherham, two seats went to Liberal Democrat and Labour.
In Tonbridge and Malling, the Conservatives held one seat but lost two others, including another defeat to the Greens.
‘Partygate’, as it become known, then competed with news that the Electoral Commission was fining the Conservative party for not reporting donations used for refurbishment work in Downing Street.
On 16 December, the Conservatives lost four of six council seats. There was another defeat to the Greens in Ashford, making it three in less than a month.
The remaining losses were all to the Liberal Democrats, although these results had to share second billing when the party captured the North Shropshire constituency in spectacular style.
Twenty-three seats, more than half of the 40 pre-Christmas by-elections, changed hands. The Conservatives show a net loss of nine seats, the Liberal Democrats and Greens net gains of six and three respectively.
Conservative fortunes have plummeted. Liberal Democrat appeals to voters will gain traction, putting many Conservative council seats in jeopardy. With the Greens advancing, the Conservatives face a two-pronged attack.
The one crumb of comfort is that Labour, which is the principal opponent nationally, is not regarded as a natural choice for local protest voters. Were that position to alter, the months ahead would look distinctly gloomy for Conservatives.
| local by-elections |
|---|
| Adur, Hillside CON HELD 32.4% over Green Turnout 21.9% |
| Allerdale, Maryport South LAB GAIN FROM IND 24% over Ind Turnout 17% |
| Ashford, Highfield GREEN GAIN FROM CON 5.9% over Con Turnout 23.5% |
| Basildon, Lee Chapel North LAB HELD 4.9% over Con Turnout 11.2% |
| Bracknell Forest, Old Bracknell LAB GAIN FROM CON 22.3% over Con Turnout 17% |
| Breckland, Hermitage CON HELD 4.1% over Lib Dem Turnout 23.4% |
| Bridgend, Caerau IND GAIN FROM LAB 7% over Lab Turnout 22.3% |
| Halton, Halton Castle LAB HELD 41.4% over Green Turnout 12.5% |
| Horsham, Roffey South LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 11.4% over Con Turnout 22.4% |
| Lancaster, Bare LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 9.8% over Green Turnout 23.5% |
| Lancaster, Carnforth and Millhead LAB HELD 23.9% over Con Turnout 20.1% |
| Lancaster, Upper Lune Valley LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 33.5% over Con Turnout 31.7% |
| Lichfield, Armitage With Handsacre CON HELD 20.7% over Lab Turnout 12.4% |
| Medway, Rochester East LAB HELD 35.1% over Con Turnout 18.7% |
| Middlesbrough, North Ormesby LAB GAIN FROM IND 60.6% over Ind Turnout 13.3% |
| Northumberland, Hexham East LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 17.3% over Con Turnout 35.1% |
| Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Knutton CON GAIN FROM LAB 2.2% over Lab Turnout 18.3% |
| Newport, Victoria LAB HELD 38.6% over LIB DEM Turnout 20.3% |
| North Norfolk, Stalham CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM 18.2% over Lib Dem Turnout 22.5% |
| Nuneaton & Bedworth , Bar Pool CON GAIN FROM LAB 31.9% over Lab Turnout 17.4% |
| Rotherham, Anston and Woodsetts LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 12.5% over Con Turnout 28% |
| Rotherham, Aughton and Swallownest LAB GAIN FROM CON 11.5% over Con Turnout 19.9% |
| Telford & Wrekin, Dawley & Aqueduct LAB HELD 14.6% over Lab Turnout 26.3% |
| Tonbridge and Malling, Castle GREEN GAIN FROM CON 22.5% over Con Turnout 34.4% |
| Tonbridge and Malling, Kings Hill CON HELD 34% over Ind Turnout 18.6% |
| Tonbridge and Malling, West Malling and Leybourne LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 9.7% over Con Turnout 27.5% |
| Torridge, Northam CON GAIN FROM IND 15.6% over Lib Dem Turnout 24.5% |
| Tunbridge Wells, Speldhurst & Bidborough TW ALLIANCE GAIN FROM CON 3.7% over Con Turnout 34.7% |
| Walsall, Pleck LAB HELD 29.3% over Con Turnout 11.3% |
| Wandsworth, Bedford LAB HELD 0.0% over Con [corr] Turnout 21.7% |
| Warwick, Whitnash RES HELD 26.7 over Lab Turnout 20.6% |
| Wealden, Hartfield GREEN GAIN FROM CON 12.3% over Con Turnout 36.6% |
| West Berkshire, Tilehurst South and Holybrook CON HELD 12.4% over Lab Turnout 23% |
| West Lindsey, Nettleham LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 18.4% over Con Turnout 32.2% |
| West Suffolk, Horringer CON HELD 9.8% over Lab Turnout 26.4% |
| Wigan, Bryn LAB GAIN FROM IND 1.2% over Ind Turnout 15.3% |
| Wirral, Oxton LIB DEM HELD 49.4% over Lab Turnout 23% |
| Worthing, Marine LAB GAIN FROM CON 10.8% over Con Turnout 37.4% |
| Wyre Forest, Franche and Habberley CON GAIN FROM IND (ICHC) 13.9% over Lab Turnout 18.3% |