The new multi-party politics is having a noticeable impact on the proportion of seats changing hands and the low share of the vote often needed for victory.
Twenty-seven of the 41 recent contests we recorded saw a turnover, with the winning candidate in 15 instances receiving less than 40 per cent of the total vote.
Reform UK gained 10 more seats over the past six weeks, though it did lose the one seat it was obliged to defend in Worcestershire.
On occasion, as in the Salford Priors and Alcester Rural ward in Stratford-on-Avon, it squeaked over the line by a handful of votes.
By contrast, in both Portsmouth’s Paulsgrove ward and in Chapel St Leonards, East Lindsey, it took two-thirds of the total vote from a standing start.
The Liberal Democrats, sometimes seen in the past as the repository for anti-government protest votes, also made 10 gains balanced in their case by two losses.
They took seats from across the political spectrum including two from the Greens. They had not contested the Staines ward in Spelthorne since 2011 but won comfortably after the Green councillor resigned to work abroad and endorsed the Independent contender rather than the new Green in his stead.
In Okehampton South, West Devon, on the other hand, the Liberal Democrats were somewhat gifted the seat. There was no replacement Green on the ballot paper, and the only two other candidates were both former Conservative councillors with one now sporting an Independent label.
The success of both Reform and the Liberal Democrats only serves to emphasise the parlous state of the two ‘big’ parties.
In May this year, the Conservatives were defending the large majority of the council seats falling vacant and promptly lost two-thirds of them. Their record at by-elections since then is eight gains, nine holds, and 29 losses.
Two of those rare gains came recently in Trafford Council. In the Hale ward, they defeated the Greens who had won the 2023 and 2024 contests. Reform polled just 8 per cent of the vote.
In Broadheath, the Conservatives’ victory was over the traditional Labour enemy. On an impressive 50 per cent turnout, their share of the vote did decline, but nothing like as far as Labour’s who likely suffered from a modest Liberal Democrat revival locally.
The pattern of next year’s contests has yet to be confirmed pending decisions about reorganisation, but this time it will be Labour in the spotlight. The party will defend fully half of the perhaps 5,000 seats on offer across up to 142 councils.
Its record in by-elections over the past six months gives little cause for optimism. It has made no gains, held 13 seats and lost 37 – three-quarters of the original total.
Losses may be mitigated in May in heartland areas such as parts of London and metropolitan cities like Manchester, but Reform lies in wait along the ‘red wall’ compounded by the challenge from formerly Labour Independents.
“The pattern of next year’s contests has yet to be confirmed pending decisions about reorganisation”
| local by-elections |
|---|
| Babergh, Copdock & Washbrook REF GAIN FROM LIB DEM 3.1% over Lib Dem Turnout 37.7% |
| Barnet, Hendon CON HELD 16.6% over Ref Turnout 25.2% |
| Birmingham, Moseley LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB 10.3% over Lab Turnout 29.9% |
| Burnley, Lanehead IND GAIN FROM LAB 12.3% over Ref Turnout 34.0% |
| Burnley, Queensgate IND GAIN FROM LAB 36.0% over Ref Turnout 27.2% |
| Canterbury, Wincheap GREEN GAIN FROM LIB DEM 15.0% over Lib Dem Turnout 33.3% |
| Cheshire East, Macclesfield Central GREEN GAIN FROM LAB 13.2% over Lab Turnout 24.2% |
| Colchester, New Town and Christ Church LAB HELD 5.3% over Lib Dem Turnout 24.0% |
| East Lindsey, Chapel St. Leonards REF GAIN FROM CON 50.2% over Con Turnout 23.0% |
| East Sussex, Ashdown and Conquest REF GAIN FROM CON 7.7% over Green Turnout 31.0% |
| Fenland, Whittlesey North West CON HELD 13.5% over Ref Turnout 27.3% |
| Gwynedd, Bethel A’r Felinheli PLAID HELD 26.1% over Ind Turnout 39.7% |
| Harborough, Fleckney REF GAIN FROM CON 6.2% over Lib Dem Turnout 32.0% |
| Newark & Sherwood, Balderton North & Coddington REF GAIN FROM IND 5.0% over Con Turnout 25.3% |
| Newark & Sherwood, Castle REF GAIN FROM IND 1.6% over Con Turnout 26.5% |
| North Somerset, Long Ashton GREEN HELD 38.0% over Con Turnout 32.6% |
| Portsmouth, Paulsgrove REF GAIN FROM IND 53.0% over Con Turnout 27.7% |
| Preston, Ashton LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB 6.0% over Ref Turnout 28.3% |
| Redcar & Cleveland, South Bank LAB HELD 3.1% over Ref Turnout 20.0% |
| Reigate & Banstead, Meadvale and St John’s LIB DEM HELD 30.7% over Green Turnout 31.3% |
| Stratford-On-Avon, Quinton LIB DEM HELD 14.2% over Ref Turnout 30.4% |
| Stratford-On-Avon, Salford Priors and Alcester Rural REF GAIN FROM CON 0.4% over Lib Dem Turnout 33.0% |
| Somerset, Dunster LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 20.7% over Ref Turnout 32.2% |
| Somerset, Glastonbury LIB DEM HELD 14.8% over Ref Turnout 33.5% |
| South Derbyshire, Seales IND GAIN FROM LAB 31.5% over Ref Turnout 30.1% |
| Spelthorne, Staines LIB DEM GAIN FROM GREEN 14.4% over Ref Turnout 30.3% |
| Stevenage, Roebuck REF GAIN FROM LAB 12.2% over Lab Turnout 25.8% |
| Surrey, Camberley West LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 23.6% over Ref Turnout 27.3% |
| Surrey, Caterham Valley LIB DEM HELD 23.6% over Ref Turnout 25.1% |
| Surrey, Guildford South East LIB DEM GAIN FROM RES 18.5% over Con Turnout 32.9% |
| Tandridge, Lingfield, Crowhurst and Tandridge RES HELD 10.6% over Ref Turnout 28.0% |
| Tandridge, Westway LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 9.3% over Ref Turnout 25.2% |
| Tandridge, Whyteleafe LIB DEM HELD 18.2% over Ref Turnout 18.6% |
| Thanet, Garlinge REF GAIN FROM IND 12.5% over Con Turnout 21.0% |
| Torridge, Milton & Tamarside LIB DEM GAIN FROM IND 6.4% over Ref Turnout 33.0% |
| Trafford, Broadheath CON GAIN FROM LAB 14.5% over Lab Turnout 49.6% |
| Trafford, Hale CON GAIN FROM GREEN 8.4% over Green Turnout 41.7% |
| Tunbridge Wells, St John’s LIB DEM HELD 38.3% over Ref Turnout 28.4% |
| Vale Of White Horse, Ridgeway LIB DEM HELD 18.7% over Con Turnout 38.2% |
| West Devon, Okehampton South LIB DEM GAIN FROM GREEN 32.7% over Con Turnout 22.2% |
| Worcestershire, Bromsgrove South LIB DEM GAIN FROM REF 18.5% over Ref Turnout 30.3% |
- For the full results, and additional data on other local by-election results, please download LGA council results November 2025