With almost a third of all English council seats falling vacant on 7 May, and nearly half the electorate able to cast a vote, there is scope for quite radical change to the pattern of local government.
The fact that 63 of 136 councils have all-out elections also makes it more likely that new leadership teams could emerge.
As in 2025, both Labour and the Conservatives could lose seats and council control, with a range of parties (and Independents) on both the left and right poised to take advantage.
The proportion of councillors belonging to one of the two ‘big’ parties has already fallen from more than 80 per cent in 2016 to just 60 per cent now, with the Liberal Democrats having a majority in more councils than the Conservatives.
Reform UK’s electoral success in 2025 saw it pass the threshold to become a formal political group within the LGA; the Greens could achieve the same goal this time.
Their recent local by-election gains, from Reform in Kent and from Labour in Rossendale, are indicative of what seems to be growing support.
In all, more than 5,000 seats are being contested, with Labour defending half, the Conservatives a quarter and the Liberal Democrats about one in eight.
The Greens defend fewer than 150 seats, whereas Reform won less than a handful at the comparable previous elections.
The reality of the new five-party politics is reflected in the Conservatives, Labour and Reform each fielding candidates in well over 90 per cent of all seats, with the Greens present in nearly 90 per cent and the Liberal Democrats just shy of 80 per cent.
Labour’s challenge this year is daunting as it defends traditional strongholds in London and the metropolitan boroughs.
In 2022, the party won a higher proportion of the seats in London than at any time for half a century and took Westminster for the first time ever.
Its performance in the mets was comparatively underwhelming, but it still emerged in control of 26 of the 33 boroughs that went to the polls.
In the 2025 local elections, the Conservatives lost two-thirds of their county and county unitary councillors, and their majority in all 16 authorities they previously controlled. They will be keen to avoid a repeat in the six counties where the elections were postponed until this year.
As at the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats made ground in 2025, despite their overall share of the vote rising only modestly. Their secret, as always, was targeting, as they gained control in Cambridgeshire, Oxfordshire and Shropshire.
The biggest threat to Labour in London is from the left, with many Labour majorities being nibbled away at best.
Already, councillors in Brent, Greenwich, Hackney, Lewisham and Southwark have defected to the Greens, and the Labour mayoralties in Hackney and Lewisham may be at risk.
With mayors currently elected on the first-past-the-post system, the possibility of someone winning with a tiny majority and a minimal share of the vote cannot be ruled out.
The Aspire party no longer has an overall majority in Tower Hamlets, but may be boosted by the endorsement of Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party. The latter is also championing the Newham Independents Party, which is fielding candidates in every ward and for mayor in a traditionally Labour council.
The Conservatives may hope for some success in Wandsworth and Westminster, but must battle Reform in parts of outer London, such as Bexley and Bromley, which border that party’s 2025 stronghold in Kent.
In Havering, long a bastion of Residents’ groups, the defection of Romford Conservative MP Andrew Rosindell to Reform may influence some voters. In every ward there is a full slate of both Residents’ and Reform candidates.
In adjacent Barking and Dagenham, Reform could also mount a challenge, but this time to Labour in a borough held by the party with huge majorities since 1964.
The south-west of London will remain safe for the Liberal Democrats, but they could make further in-roads in Merton following their convincing general election success in Wimbledon.
Reform is likely to be Labour’s key opponent in the 32 metropolitan boroughs. All-out elections in half of them mean there is the potential to overturn the status quo at a stroke. In 12 of those cases, Labour currently enjoys a clear majority.
Barnsley, Sunderland and Wakefield have been under Labour control since they were established in 1974. At the 2024 general election, they were all in the top 20 Reform party shares.
Birmingham, Sandwell and Walsall in the West Midlands also have whole-council contests.
In Birmingham, Labour faces a challenge from the left, with the Workers’ Party coming a close second in two constituencies in 2024.
Sandwell was very briefly held by the Conservatives in 1978, but has been Labour ever since, with the party currently holding almost nine in 10 seats.
Walsall is one of just two metropolitan boroughs with a Conservative majority. Reform gained a seat following a big swing at a by-election last September, but the winning candidate has now defected to Rupert Lowe’s rival Restore Britain party. Multi-party politics here, as elsewhere, makes these elections very difficult to call.
Green councillors number in double figures in four of the boroughs that go to the polls. The party won four council seats in May 2024, in both Bradford and South Tyneside; in Sheffield, they won six and came second in the popular vote.
The Greens will be hoping to advance based on recent favourable publicity, but their success is likely to be greater in those areas with a younger, more educated demographic.
In the counties, the Conservatives and Reform go head-to-head in parts of Essex and Norfolk in particular, but some success for the Liberal Democrats and Greens should not be ruled out.
The Liberal Democrats gained several constituencies in East and West Sussex, and in Hampshire, in 2024, and the Greens have control of Mid Suffolk District Council and are the largest party in neighbouring East Suffolk and in Babergh.
Much of this could change again next year, with elections to new unitary authorities. These are smaller than originally envisaged, but will still reflect political loyalties at the time.
This year, the first iteration of this local government reorganisation comes in Surrey, with elections to East Surrey and West Surrey councils. Both Liberal Democrats and Residents’ groups are entrenched in different parts of the county.
In West Surrey, for example, the Liberal Democrats already control, or are by far the largest party, in four of its six constituent districts.
Elsewhere among the unitary authorities, Labour faces an Independent challenge in several of the seats it won in Blackburn in 2022.
In Halton, by contrast, its majority is unassailable, and in Plymouth, Reading and Southampton it would have to lose half or more of the seats being defended before coming close to sacrificing control.
Reform will look to increase its representation in Hartlepool and in North East Lincolnshire, which both voted 70-30 to leave the EU in 2016.
There is less scope for wholesale turnovers in the district council elections, with three-quarters only choosing a third of their councillors.
However, both Huntingdonshire and Newcastle-under-Lyme have opted for a four-yearly cycle, and both present an opportunity for Reform. The party topped the poll in the 2025 county contests in the former and won eight of the nine county divisions in the latter.
On the other side of the political divide, Hastings – which chooses half its councillors – could become the second council under Green overall control.
The Labour performance in Adur is also worth attention. In 2022, the party took five of 14 seats; in 2024, it won every ward except three.
In Burnley, where defections from Labour to an Independent group have become commonplace, Labour’s position as the largest party is at risk.
See next month’s first for Professors Rallings and Thrasher’s review of the 7 May local election results
England local elections 2026
5,013* seats in 136 councils (22 with boundary changes) comprising six county councils,
32 London boroughs, 32 metropolitan boroughs, 18 unitary authorities and 48 district councils.
| Con | Lab | Lib Dem | Ind/Other | No overall control | |
| Councils controlled | 18 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 35 |
| Seats being defended* | 1,362 | 2,557 | 684 | 410 | / |