It is little wonder that those attending the recent Labour and Conservative party conferences spent much of their time looking over their shoulders at Reform UK.
While it can be argued that the ever-growing number of opinion polls (more than 100 since the local elections in May) ask effectively hypothetical questions about a general election which may still be nearly four years away, the fact that Reform has led in every one cannot be easily dismissed.
The narrative is further reinforced by the results of real elections.
In the 117 local by-elections we have recorded since 1 May, Reform has made 42 gains – including 15 from the Conservatives and 20 from Labour.
And that is quite apart from the two dozen and growing number of sitting councillors who have defected to Reform without benefit of the endorsement of their electorate.
Those patterns have continued over the past five weeks.
In North Northamptonshire, Reform retained a seat first won in May.
In losing to Reform, Labour shifted from first to fourth in the Illtyd ward of the Vale of Glamorgan, and from first to third in the Trowbridge ward in Cardiff.
In both cases the party’s vote share fell by more than half, which bodes ill for its prospects in next year’s Welsh Senedd elections.
The Conservatives experienced a similar decline in the Skelton East ward of Redcar & Cleveland, where the winner for Reform had been a Conservative councillor in the neighbouring West ward until his defeat in 2023.
They came third, too, in previously safe Bretforton and Offenham in Wychavon, where another unsuccessful former Conservative from 2023 prevailed.
However, whereas neither Labour nor the Conservatives gained a single seat from one of their party political opponents, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and localist parties each made modest advances.
The Liberal Democrat gain from the Conservatives in Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole was in the Talbot and Branksome Woods ward, where the party had topped the poll in 2023 but only won one of the three seats.
Kenn Valley in Teignbridge was another split ward last time, but the Liberal Democrat share of the vote increased quite sharply to allow it to gain the third and final seat.
The Greens held two seats, and took one in Queen’s Park ward, Brighton & Hove, for the first time since 2019.
The Our West Lancashire (OWL) group won the Aughton & Holborn ward in the eponymous council following a sharp decline in Labour support.
And in Plaistow South in Newham, yet another former Conservative candidate emerged as the banner holder for the Newham Independents following a 40-percentage point swing against Labour.
If public sentiment remains unchanged, the 2026 local elections could see a dramatic turnover in both councils and councillors for the second successive year.
| local by-elections |
|---|
| Ashford, Rolvenden & Tenterden West GREEN HELD 4.9% over Ref Turnout 36.2% |
| Bath & North East Somerset, Widcombe & Lyncombe LIB DEM HELD 29.0% over Green Turnout 35.2% |
| Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole, Talbot and Branksome Woods LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 4.2% over Ref Turnout 28.4% |
| Breckland, Thetford Castle REF GAIN FROM LAB 20.6% over Lab Turnout 24.9% |
| Brentwood, Hutton South REF GAIN FROM CON 14.8% over Con Turnout 34.1% |
| Brighton & Hove, Queen’s Park GREEN GAIN FROM LAB 17.2% over Lab Turnout 33.3% |
| Cardiff, Trowbridge REF GAIN FROM LAB 15.9% over Lib Dem Turnout 24.7% |
| Cheshire East, Wilmslow Lacey Green CON GAIN FROM IND 5.6% over Lab Turnout 30.5% |
| Cheshire West and Chester, Strawberry LAB HELD 3.7% over Ref Turnout 41.6% |
| Hart, Yateley West LIB DEM HELD 26.8% over Ref Turnout 30.0% |
| Isle Of Wight, Lake North REF HELD 5.2% over Con Turnout 28.4% |
| Manchester, Woodhouse Park GREEN HELD 14.3% over Ref Turnout 16.3% |
| Maidstone, Harrietsham, Lenham and North Downs 3 REF GAINS FROM IND 31.6% over Green Turnout 31.0% |
| Newham, Plaistow South RES GAIN FROM LAB 23.3% over Lab Turnout 23.1% |
| North Northamptonshire, Lloyds and Corby Village REF HELD 6.1% over Lab Turnover 22.7% |
| Redcar & Cleveland, Skelton East REF GAIN FROM CON 46.1% over Lab Turnout 38.2% |
| Teignbridge, Kenn Valley LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 27.3% over Ref Turnout 31.0% |
| Vale Of Glamorgan, Illtyd REF GAIN FROM LAB 3.1% over Plaid Cymru Turnout 36.3% |
| Walsall, Pelsall REF GAIN FROM CON 2.0% over Con Turnout 32.0% |
| Warwick, Kenilworth Park Hill GREEN HELD 17.0% over Con Turnout 31.5% |
| Warwick, Leamington Clarendon LAB HELD 0.7% over Lib Dem Turnout 25.2% |
| West Lancashire, Aughton & Holborn RES GAIN FROM LAB 11.4% over Ref Turnout 30.4% |
| West Suffolk, Newmarket East REF GAIN FROM LAB 4.8% over Con Turnout 28.6% |
| Wigan, Wigan Central REF GAIN FROM LAB 14.3% over Lab Turnout 30.9% |
| Wychavon, Bretforton and Offenham REF GAIN FROM CON 17.5% over Green Turnout 36.1% |
- Download the excel spreadsheet below for more stats on recent local by-elections
LGA council results October 2025