Reform UK’s electoral momentum continues with another five gains (three from Labour, two from Conservative), bringing its total to 13 since the general election.
In 12 of the remaining 25 seats considered here, Reform candidates finished in second place.
Conservatives enjoyed success against Labour and the Greens but internal divisions continue to undermine its recovery. Labour’s seven defeats brought its total net losses to 33 seats since coming to power nationally.
The resignation as councillors of two recent additions to the House of Commons resulted in a two-seat vacancy in Medway’s Rochester East & Warren Wood. Labour gained council control in 2023 but the loss of both seats to Reform means its majority has now gone.
Reform also won in Torfaen’s Trevithin & Penygarn ward, winning the seat with 47 per cent of the vote as Labour’s vote dropped. The Conservatives chose not to contest but Reform had to overcome the challenge from two Independents and a Green.
The resignation on health grounds of The Bentleys and Frating long-serving Cllr Lynda McWilliams presented the Conservatives with a difficult challenge in Tendring. The ward forms part of Nigel Farage’s Clacton constituency and a 38-point swing to Reform proved more than adequate with the Conservatives slipping to third place.
In 2015, Conservatives were unopposed in Breckland’s Bedingfeld ward and remained safe thereafter. However, the fate of local MP Liz Truss, beaten by Labour at the general election, demonstrated the extent of party decline.
Reform, which won over a fifth of the constituency vote last July, successfully squeezed both main parties and won over half the votes.
On paper, the Conservatives faced few problems ousting Labour in both Hyndburn and Westminster.
In the former, Baxenden ward was steadfast in its support for the Conservatives until 2024 when Labour clinched victory by just 24 votes. However, UKIP polled well here previously and Reform did better, finishing only 38 votes behind the winner as Labour slumped to third.
Westminster’s Vincent Square ward regularly contributed towards the Conservatives’ council majority – until 2022, when Labour, on its way to securing council control, snatched one of the three ward seats on offer by just 27 votes. The Conservatives duly recaptured the seat this time but largely because of the swing away from Labour to Reform.
The Conservatives were edged out by an Independent and Green at the 2023 contest for New Forest’s Bransgore two-member ward. The absence of an Independent candidate this time doubtless contributed to a 33-point surge in Conservative support and a comfortable victory.
Green compensation came with a gain from Labour in Warwick where the two parties form the administration. In All Saints and Woodloes, Labour took all three seats in 2023 while a by-election in January 2024 saw the party safely defend with the Greens absent.
With Labour now in government, however, the Greens sense vulnerability, a tactic that may increase in the future.
Pendle’s Vivary Bridge ward has mostly elected Conservative councillors in recent years with the Liberal Democrats previously strong there. The vacancy arose after the resignation of Conservative Keiran McGladdery, and Reform selected a former Conservative ward councillor as its candidate.
This tactic affected the votes of both major parties but the absence of a Green candidate proved key to a narrow Liberal Democrat victory.
The Conservatives were unable to defend the vacancy in the Haverfordwest Prendergast ward after their councillor left the party to sit as an Independent before finally resigning his seat. Despite opposition from party candidates, it was Independent Alun Wills who topped the polled with under a third of the vote.
Independent Theo Dennison contested Hounslow’s Syon and Brentford Lock ward in 2022, finishing in fourth place behind three Labour winners. Previously, Dennison was Labour councillor for the predecessor Syon ward before resigning the party whip.
In May 2024, he contested Brentford West in a by-election, finishing second, before going one better to win this by-election – but only by 12 votes.
| local by-elections |
|---|
| Ashford, Rolvenden & Tenterden West GREEN HELD 4.9% over Ref Turnout 36.2% |
| Bath & North East Somerset, Widcombe & Lyncombe LIB DEM HELD 29.0% over Green Turnout 35.2% |
| Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole, Talbot and Branksome Woods LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 4.2% over Ref Turnout 28.4% |
| Breckland, Thetford Castle REF GAIN FROM LAB 20.6% over Lab Turnout 24.9% |
| Brentwood, Hutton South REF GAIN FROM CON 14.8% over Con Turnout 34.1% |
| Brighton & Hove, Queen's Park GREEN GAIN FROM LAB 17.2% over Lab Turnout 33.3% |
| Cardiff, Trowbridge REF GAIN FROM LAB 15.9% over Lib Dem Turnout 24.7% |
| Cheshire East, Wilmslow Lacey Green CON GAIN FROM IND 5.6% over Lab Turnout 30.5% |
| Cheshire West and Chester, Strawberry LAB HELD 3.7% over Ref Turnout 41.6% |
| Hart, Yateley West LIB DEM HELD 26.8% over Ref Turnout 30.0% |
| Isle Of Wight, Lake North REF HELD 5.2% over Con Turnout 28.4% |
| Manchester, Woodhouse Park GREEN HELD 14.3% over Ref Turnout 16.3% |
| Maidstone, Harrietsham, Lenham and North Downs 3 REF GAINS FROM IND 31.6% over Green Turnout 31.0% |
| Newham, Plaistow South RES GAIN FROM LAB 23.3% over Lab Turnout 23.1% |
| North Northamptonshire, Lloyds and Corby Village REF HELD 6.1% over Lab Turnover 22.7% |
| Redcar & Cleveland, Skelton East REF GAIN FROM CON 46.1% over Lab Turnout 38.2% |
| Teignbridge, Kenn Valley LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 27.3% over Ref Turnout 31.0% |
| Vale Of Glamorgan, Illtyd REF GAIN FROM LAB 3.1% over Plaid Cymru Turnout 36.3% |
| Walsall, Pelsall REF GAIN FROM CON 2.0% over Con Turnout 32.0% |
| Warwick, Kenilworth Park Hill GREEN HELD 17.0% over Con Turnout 31.5% |
| Warwick, Leamington Clarendon LAB HELD 0.7% over Lib Dem Turnout 25.2% |
| West Lancashire, Aughton & Holborn RES GAIN FROM LAB 11.4% over Ref Turnout 30.4% |
| West Suffolk, Newmarket East REF GAIN FROM LAB 4.8% over Con Turnout 28.6% |
| Wigan, Wigan Central REF GAIN FROM LAB 14.3% over Lab Turnout 30.9% |
| Wychavon, Bretforton and Offenham REF GAIN FROM CON 17.5% over Green Turnout 36.1% |
- For more information on all recent by-elections, please download the excel below.