Labour’s gain of Durham’s Murton ward from Reform UK has naturally attracted attention, since it runs contrary to the general trend of Labour struggling to retain seats.
Reform took control of Durham County Council at last May’s elections, winning 65 seats with an overall vote share of 37 per cent. Shortly afterwards, it faced by-elections, following resignations of two of its newly elected councillors.
The first seat was lost to the Liberal Democrats, but the other was held.
Following another resignation, Reform selected Theo Bell as its candidate this time, with Labour returning to Julie Griffiths, the defeated councillor last time.
As part of its budget policy, the council voted to reduce council tax relief for the poorest households to 75 per cent from 100 per cent, a decision that may or may not have contributed to Reform’s defeat on this occasion.
Those who leap to the conclusion from the Murton result that Reform in power will face a backlash can be countered with a by-election held elsewhere on the same day.
Tamworth’s Spital ward was a gain from Labour with Reform polling 44 per cent of the vote from a standing start. Half of Tamworth’s voters backed Reform at the 2025 elections for Staffordshire County Council, when the party won 49 of 62 seats.
The broader picture regarding Reform shows that in by-elections held since its breakthrough performance last year, it has retained only half of the seats it has defended. A 50 per cent retention rate sounds poor – and it is, in comparison with the Liberal Democrats (87 per cent), and the Greens (61 per cent).
But the more meaningful comparison is probably with the two main parties. Labour has safely negotiated only 14 of its 62 vacancies (retention rate 23 per cent, or losing almost three in every four seats) while the Conservatives are only marginally better, retaining only three in 10 of their seats.
The average majority is 20 per cent in the wards Labour has lost and the average change in vote share in those is -25 per cent.
Reform picked up the Labour seat in Peterborough’s Fletton and Woodston ward, finishing 36 votes ahead of the Greens with the incumbents relegated to third place after their vote fell by 31 percentage points.
The two remaining Reform gains came in Ynys Môn’s Ynys Gybi ward, where Celfyn Furlong polled 44 per cent; and Braintree’s Coggleshall ward, where an Independent just failed to retain the seat.
Plaid Cymru made two gains from Labour, with the latter’s vote falling from 59 per cent to 11 per cent in Pembrokeshire’s Fishguard North East ward. In this case, a ballot of just two parties in 2022 become a list of seven this time, with the winning party’s share a lowly 34 per cent on a high turnout.
The explanation for Plaid’s win in Caerphilly’s Van ward provides another example of Labour haemorrhaging votes to Reform. Its drop in vote matched the support for Reform, a 28-point swing between the two, with Plaid Cymru the beneficiary.
A week before the Greens’ dramatic victory at the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election, the party took Labour’s Leicester seat in Stoneygate ward by 106 votes. Another complicated ballot, including a candidate from One Leicester, saw the Greens’ Aasiya Bora win through.
The Liberal Democrats’ gain from Labour in Redcar and Cleveland’s Zetland ward was a case of the party recovering from a previous setback. Sitting councillor Alison Barnes was defeated here in 2023, but now makes a return.
The Conservatives made a rare gain when comfortably winning Hextable ward in Sevenoaks. The vacancy arose following the death of long-serving Independent Cllr Darren Kitchener, first elected for the ward in 2015 alongside a Conservative. He topped the poll four years later when standing for the Hextable Independents before winning for a third time in 2023.
By-election results
| By-elections | |
|---|---|
| Bradford, Worth Valley CON HELD 25.6% over Ref | Turnout 32.2% | |
| Braintree, Coggeshall REF GAIN FROM IND 2.1% over Ind | Turnout 37.1% | |
| Caerphilly, Van PLAID GAIN FROM LAB 14.8% over Ref | Turnout 25.9% | |
| Durham, Murton LAB GAIN FROM REF 11% over Ref | Turnout 28.3% | |
| Leicester, Stoneygate GREEN GAIN FROM LAB 2.7% over Lab | Turnout 27.8% | |
| North Somerset, Clevedon South LAB HELD 1.3% over Ref | Turnout 36.4% | |
| Pembrokeshire, Fishguard North East PLAID GAIN FROM LAB 15.6% over Lib Dem | Turnout 48.6% | |
| Peterborough, Fletton and Woodston REF GAIN FROM LAB 1.9% over Green | Turnout 25.2% | |
| Redcar & Cleveland, Zetland LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB 28.9% over Lab | Turnout 26.8% | |
| Sevenoaks, Hextable CON GAIN FROM IND 12.6% over Ref | Turnout 47.2% | |
| Southampton, Shirley LIB DEM HELD 0.6% over Lab | Turnout 35% | |
| Stroud, Thrupp GREEN HELD 51.0% over Ref | Turnout 41.3% | |
| Tamworth, Spital REF GAIN FROM LAB 23.2% over Green | Turnout 26.2% | |
| Ynys Môn, Ynys Gybi REF GAIN FROM PLAID 18.9% over Plaid | Turnout 33.3% |