Change in prospect

The party gained 10 additional seats in June-July from a total of 32 contests, with the Conservatives, Labour and even Independents on the receiving end. It was second in 17 others. 

For both Labour and the Conservatives, their share of the vote compared with the relevant previous May elections dropped almost everywhere, sometimes quite dramatically.

In the Stocksbridge and Upper Don ward in Sheffield, for example, those two parties each experienced a fall of more than 20 percentage points as electors variously opted instead for either Reform or the Liberal Democrats.

But, as always, statistics may not tell the whole story.

There was indeed a near 60 percentage point fall in the Labour vote in the Eastfield division of North Yorkshire between the 2022 all-out elections and June’s by-election.

However, the Labour councillor elected in 2022 resigned the party’s whip a year later and easily won a subsequent by-election as an Independent, with Labour limping into third place with 16 per cent of the vote. 

So, Labour’s initial collapse here can be dated back two years, though there can be no denying that Reform hoovered up all around this time.

However, Nigel Farage’s party needs perhaps to be aware of so-called buyer’s remorse, as Reform did lose two seats which it had won in May.

In Benfieldside, County Durham, the elected councillor turned out to be an employee of the council and was therefore automatically disqualified. The Liberal Democrats were the grateful beneficiaries among voters asked to go to the polls again rather unnecessarily.

In the Newark West division of Nottinghamshire, the Reform councillor resigned just a week after the election citing personal circumstances.

The party’s vote held up surprisingly well on a reduced turnout, but the Conservatives prevailed by eight votes to register just their second gain since May.

It has long been thought that London is another country in electoral terms and two recent results bear that out.

The Conservatives easily retained their Fulham Town seat in Hammersmith & Fulham with Labour falling back and Reform polling its lowest share of the vote in any by-election it has contested since 1 May.

In the Shooters Hill ward in Greenwich, Labour’s vote more than halved, enabling the Greens to leap to victory from a distant second place. 

Those outcomes may be indicative of the kind of change in prospect at next year’s London borough elections, when Labour defends its 2022 high water mark, but elsewhere in England Reform will be in the spotlight.

The elections held over from May 2025 until 2026 in counties such as Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk (witness the Reform win in the Tower division) could see more long-standing Conservative administrations toppled.

Reform’s direct threat to Labour in 2026 is also more serious than it was this year, with no fewer than 10 Labour-controlled metropolitan boroughs – including Barnsley, Sandwell, Sunderland and Wakefield – having whole council elections following boundary changes.

local by-elections
Adur, Buckingham
LAB HELD
21.4% over Ref
Turnout 45.4%
Basildon, Wickford Park
REF GAIN FROM CON
3.6% over Con
Turnout 25.3%
Bassetlaw, Ranskill
REF GAIN FROM CON
37.0% over Lab
Turnout 30.5%
Bath & North East Somerset, Mendip
LIB DEM HELD
35.1% over Ref
Turnout 37.5%
Chorley, Buckshaw and Whittle
CON GAIN FROM LAB
2.8% over Ref
Turnout 22.4%
Durham, Benfieldside
LIB DEM GAIN FROM REF
0.8% over Lab
Turnout 37.0%
Gedling, Calverton
IND GAIN FROM CON
48.3% over Ref
Turnout 29.6%
Greenwich, Shooters Hill
GREEN GAIN FROM LAB
4.5% over Lab
Turnout 32.6%
Hammersmith & Fulham, Fulham Town
CON HELD
20.2% over Lib Dem
Turnout 28.6%
Hartlepool, Throston
REF GAIN FROM LAB
9.8% over Lab
Turnout 20.4%
Isle Of Wight, Wroxall, Lowtherville and Bonchurch
IND HELD
25.2% over Ref
Turnout 32.4%
Mid Devon, Crediton Lawrence
LIB DEM HELD
37.7% over Ref
Turnout 27.1%
Mole Valley, Bookham East and Eastwick Park
LIB DEM HELD
35.5% over Ref
Turnout 38.3%
North Tyneside, Killingworth
REF GAIN FROM LAB
6.6% over Lab
Turnout 30.3%
North Tyneside, Longbenton and Benton
LAB HELD
7.3% over Ref
Turnout 24.7%
North Yorkshire, Eastfield
REF GAIN FROM LAB
48.6% over Lab
Turnout 16.6%
Nottinghamshire, Newark West
CON GAIN FROM REF
0.4% over Ref
Turnout 22.0%
Powys, Llanidloes
LIB DEM HELD
0.4% over Ref
Turnout 47.4%
Rossendale, Whitworth
REF GAIN FROM COMMUNITY FIRST
18.4% over Con
Turnout 26.2%
Rother, Catsfield & Crowhurst
LIB DEM HELD
9.2% over Ref
Turnout 37.0%
Rotherham, Keppel
REF GAIN FROM LAB
12.5% over Ind
Turnout 27.3%
Sefton, Blundellsands
LAB HELD
28.4% over Green
Turnout 30.0%
Sheffield, Stocksbridge and Upper Don
REF GAIN FROM LAB
3.6% over Lib Dem
Turnout 36.8%
South Staffordshire, Great Wyrley Landywood
CON HELD
9.0% over Ref
Turnout 18.8%
Spelthorne, Ashford Town
LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON
4.1% over Ref
Turnout 32.6%
Stevenage, Bedwell
LAB HELD
8.7% over Ref
Turnout 21.6%
Suffolk, Tower
REF GAIN FROM CON
3.8% over Green
Turnout 27.2%
Surrey, Woking South
LIB DEM HELD
44.6% over Ref
Turnout 25.1%
Tewkesbury, Northway
REF GAIN FROM IND
10.5% over Lib Dem
Turnout 25.3%
Vale Of White Horse, Botley & Sunningwell
LIB DEM HELD
55.7% over Con
Turnout 20.2%
Wealden, Horam & Punnetts Town
GREEN HELD
2.9% over Ref
Turnout 28.0%
Woking, Hoe Valley
LIB DEM HELD
41.5% over Ref
Turnout 24.4%
  • Download the excel spreadsheet below for more stats on recent local by-elections
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