One of the fascinating aspects of local as opposed to parliamentary by-elections is that they benchmark a variety of points in the political calendar.
This month, for example, 13 of the 20 elections we recorded reference contests last held in 2023, two refer back to 2025, and five to 2026.
In the May 2023 elections, Reform UK contested fewer than 5 per cent of seats and had not a single councillor elected. In both 2025 and 2026, it fielded candidates in almost every ward and won more seats than any other party.
In by-elections where 2023 is the comparator year, there is evidence that Reform remains able to make significant gains and post impressive vote shares from a standing start.
It polled half the total vote to win in East Markham, Bassetlaw, and gained two other seats with about a 40 per cent share. Even where it fell short, it often polled above 30 per cent to finish second, such as in Wreake Valley, Charnwood.
These results are significant because most seats falling vacant at next year’s May local elections were last contested in 2023, with scope for Reform to register a third consecutive year of strong gains.
This is especially the case in districts within those counties such as Kent, Lincolnshire, and Suffolk that saw the party take majority control in recent years.
However, in every by-election where the comparator year is 2025 or 2026, Reform has slipped back.
Additionally, the argument can be made that the presence of Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain Party in some recent contests may have prevented Reform from either holding a seat (Amble, in Northumberland) or making gains (in Blackpool and Amber Valley).
This set of by-elections also provides signs that Labour’s and the Conservatives’ fortunes have bottomed out since the local contests of 2025 and 2026 – albeit both remain below where they were in 2023.
Labour restored the 2023 status quo in Walkley, Sheffield; made an impressive hold in the newly created New Bradwell ward in Milton Keynes; and won Town, Newcastle-under-Lyme, which six months ago was split with Reform.
However, in Manchester’s Burnage ward, the party’s increase in vote share since May still leaves it behind where it was three and a half years ago.
The Conservatives did better than in 2023, in gaining seats from the Greens in Blockley, Cotswold, and Wreake Valley, Charnwood, despite the intervention of Reform.
On the other hand, they lost support in Amber Valley and in North Somerset, where they finished in third place.
Cranbrook, Sissinghurst and Frittenden, Tunbridge Wells, which they won in May, swung direct to the Liberal Democrats this time. As often, local issues may well have been to the fore in an area badly hit by water supply problems over the summer months.
| By-elections |
|---|
| Amber Valley, Kilburn, Denby, Holbrook & Horsley GREEN GAIN FROM CON 2.5% over Ref Turnout 34.3% |
| Bassetlaw, East Markham REF GAIN FROM CON 21.2% over Con Turnout 42.1% |
| Blackpool, Claremont LAB HELD 3.6% over Ref Turnout 22.0% |
| Brighton & Hove, Queen’s Park GREEN GAIN FROM LAB 14.8% over Lab Turnout 33.4% |
| Charnwood, Wreake Valley CON GAIN FROM GREEN 17.0% over Ref Turnout 26.3% |
| Cotswold, Blockley CON GAIN FROM GREEN 25.5% over Lib Dem Turnout 37.4% |
| Lambeth, Myatt’s Fields LAB HELD 9.6% over Green Turnout 26.6% |
| Manchester, Burnage LAB HELD 10.1% over Green Turnout 23.6% |
| Milton Keynes, New Bradwell LAB HELD 30.9% over Ref Turnout 25.9% |
| Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Town LAB GAIN FROM REF 19.5% over Ref Turnout 23.2% |
| North East Derbyshire, Eckington South and Renishaw REF GAIN FROM LAB 12.1% over Lab Turnout 23.2% |
| North Somerset, Hutton and Locking REF GAIN FROM CON 5.1% over Lib Dem Turnout 26.3% |
| Northumberland, Amble LAB GAIN FROM REF 5.3% over Ref Turnout 31.0% |
| Northumberland, Hirst LAB GAIN FROM REF 20.0% over Ref Turnout 21.0% |
| North West Leicestershire, Long Whatton and Diseworth CON HELD 35.8% over Ref Turnout 50.8% |
| Sheffield, Walkley LAB GAIN FROM GREEN 24.6% over Green Turnout 28.2% |
| South Staffordshire, Wombourne North CON HELD 12.7% over Ref Turnout 31.1% |
| Tunbridge Wells, Cranbrook, Sissinghurst and Frittenden LIB DEM GAIN FROM RES 5.7% over Con Turnout 32.2% |
| West Suffolk, Haverhill West CON HELD 25.9% over Ref Turnout 24.5% |
| Windsor & Maidenhead, Bray CON HELD 1.3% over Lib Dem Turnout 35.9% |
- For more details on these and other recent by-election results, please view our elections spreadsheet below.