The final quarter of 2025 established a record, with 62 per cent of by-elections lost by the defending party.
The first quarter of 2026 reveals a new record – 68 per cent were lost with all parties featuring among the winners and losers.
Labour and the Conservative are bearing the brunt of losses as the two-party establishment erodes.
Since last May’s local elections, Labour has lost almost eight in 10 of its by-election defences; the Conservatives are faring better but still losing two in every three of theirs.
Reform UK is making gains from all the main parties as well as Independents, beating six competitors and the incumbent Lincolnshire Independents in North Kesteven’s Sleaford Westholme ward.
In North Lincolnshire, the Conservatives retained their seat in Axholme Central, albeit with a fall in vote share, but Labour was defeated in Brumby – where Reform’s Ellen Dew picked up over half the votes cast from a standing start.
It is rare to get a by-election so close to a council’s May election, such as in Bury’s Tottington ward, where Reform emerged the victors.
There was a rare Reform gain from Liberal Democrat in Luton’s Wigmore ward. Subsequent to the disqualification under the six months rule of sitting councillor Alan Skepelhorn, the party saw a 52-point collapse in vote share, which favoured the Greens but Reform’s James Fletcher maximised the advantage.
A less surprising Liberal Democrat loss occurred in the battle for Vale of White Horse’s Stanford ward. A set of strong Conservative performances were halted in 2023 when the Liberal Democrats won by just 10 votes. Normal service may have resumed in Stanford but the council remains firmly in Liberal Democrat hands.
Almost five candidates on average contest each seat on 7 May, the same ratio as last year, as more parties seek advantage among the chaotic market for votes.
Electors eager to shop around – average percentage turnout over the first quarter stands at 38 per cent, the highest figure for almost 30y years – find bulging candidate lists which produce unlikely winners; the average vote share for by-election winners has fallen below 40 per cent for the first time.
Eight candidates contested the vacant Pembrokeshire seat of Milford Hakin. Three Independents were joined by five parties but it was Reform’s Scott Thorley who won the seat with 27 per cent share of the vote.
However, since last May Reform has had to defend seats, including three here.
The vacancy for Kent’s Thanet-based Cliftonville division arose following a custodial sentence for former councillor, Daniel Taylor, who gained the seat from the Conservatives in May 2025.
The candidate list featured no fewer than four current or former councillors. The victor emerging from this scrum was Rob Yates, a former Labour councillor for Margate but now transferred to the Green party.
A second Reform seat fell to the Conservatives in Northumberland’s Cramlington South West seat but in Leicestershire’s Narborough and Whetstone division, Reform held off the challenge provided by the Conservatives and Greens.
There is declining interest in a progressive alliance between the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
Vale of White Horse saw a pact between the two for the 2023 elections resulting in each party securing a council seat in Abingdon Abbey Northcourt ward. The Green incumbent’s resignation saw the Liberal Democrats challenge and win this time around.
But the Greens are having a run of success, evidenced by two further gains, one from the Liberal Democrats, another from Labour.
Liverpool’s Aigburth ward was contested because of the resignation of veteran Liberal Democrat councillor, Dave Antrobus, but the Greens moved from a distant third in 2023 to secure the seat.
Rossendale’s Labour-defended Hareholme and Waterfoot ward revealed more electoral volatility, with support for both main parties declining. Reform garnered a third of the votes having not challenged before, but last time’s second-placed Greens did enough to make the gain.
There was an unusual open seat in North Devon’s Fremington ward, where four Independents stood in 2023 but none this time around. The Liberal Democrats, who finished seventh and last previously, led five party candidates that contested the by-election.
| By-elections |
|---|
| Bury, Tottington REF GAIN FROM CON 12.8% over Con Turnout 30.7% |
| Cotswold, The Beeches LIB DEM HELD 30.0% over Ref Turnout 33.8% |
| Kent, Cliftonville GREEN GAIN FROM REF 5.6% over Ref Turnout 37.7% |
| Leicestershire, Narborough and Whetstone REF HELD 3.5% over Con Turnout 29.6% |
| Liverpool, Aigburth GREEN GAIN FROM LIB DEM 8.3% over Lib Dem Turnout 42.7% |
| Luton, Wigmore REF GAIN FROM LIB DEM 2.5% over Lib Dem Turnout 25.7% |
| North Devon, Fremington LIB DEM GAIN FROM IND 17.0% over Ref Turnout 34.7% |
| North Kesteven, Sleaford Westholme REF GAIN FROM LINCS IND 27.0% over Ind Turnout 26.1% |
| North Lincolnshire, Axholme Central CON HELD 13.7% over Ref Turnout 31.2% |
| North Lincolnshire, Brumby REF GAIN FROM LAB 24.4% over Lab Turnout 17.4% |
| Northumberland, Cramlington South West CON GAIN FROM REF 8.1% over Ref Turnout 26.9% |
| Pembrokeshire, Milford Hakin REF GAIN FROM IND 5.3% over Con Turnout 32.7% |
| Rossendale, Hareholme and Waterfoot GREEN GAIN FROM LAB 3.2% over Ref Turnout 30.7% |
| Sevenoaks, Halstead Knockholt and Badgers CON HELD 14.4% over Ref Turnout 45.0% |
| Vale Of White Horse, Abingdon Abbey Northcourt LIB DEM GAIN FROM GREEN 11.3% over Green Turnout 31.6% |
| Vale Of White Horse, Stanford CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM 18.7 over Lib Dem Turnout 43.4% |
| Westmorland and Furness, Penrith South LIB DEM HELD 9.3% over Ref Turnout 23.5% |