The 1 May elections saw hundreds of seats changing hands, but recent by-elections show turnover accelerating; of 23 recent by-elections, 61 per cent resulted in the defending party being defeated.
The 1 May elections saw hundreds of seats changing hands but recent by-elections show turnover accelerating; of 23 recent by-elections, 61 per cent saw the defending party defeated.
Reform UK continues to make progress, making 10 gains and finishing second in a further six seats. In seats Reform won, the defeated party’s majority averaged 21 per cent. Reform’s vote share now averages 34 per cent, up from a fifth just a few months ago.
Labour were defending eight vacancies and secured only one, while the Conservatives lost all four of their seats.
Calderdale’s Skircoat ward saw Labour unable to defend a 26 per cent majority. With Reform able to attract considerable support without having contested a seat before, wards like Skircoat are now marginal.
Labour won Stoke-on-Trent’s Birches Head and Northwood ward two years ago, overcoming the challenge of the City Independents. Reform selected Luke Shenton following his second-place finish in the parliamentary seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central.
The absence of a City Independent candidate and the collapse of both the Labour and Conservative vote enabled Shenton to win a 59 per cent vote share.
Next year’s elections for the 96-member Welsh Senedd should see a strong battle between Labour and Reform. Evidence of that rivalry was in evidence in Carmarthenshire’s Lliedi ward where Reform brushed Labour aside, courtesy of a 38-point swing.
Derbyshire was one of the counties that elected Reform last May, with Amber Valley contributing seven councillors to its total. A Labour vacancy for Somercotes ward on the district council was unlikely to pose any difficulty for Reform, which climbed to 45 per cent of the vote.
Two Labour vacancies in Kings Lynn saw neither seat contested by Conservatives, an unusual occurrence. Their absence in both Fairstead and North Lynn wards, where the party had previously polled around a third of the vote, gave Reform two easy victories.
Although Reform has understandably switched its focus to Labour, it remains a threat to the Conservatives.
Two defeats to Reform – one in Broadland, where the Conservative vote fell by 25 points – and a second in Tendring, which has already seen four former Conservative councillors defecting to Reform, highlight the party’s plight.
Anne Davis, Reform’s winner in Tendring’s Frinton ward and a former UKIP councillor, won 57 per cent of the vote and took full advantage of local independents Tendring First not contesting the vacancy.
When Independents did take on Reform they were also defeated.
The Canvey Island Independents won all 15 seats in Canvey Island, Castle Point, in 2024. The death of long-standing councillor, Peter Grieg, prompted this by-election, with the Leader of Canvey Island Town Council, Steve Sach, hoping to replace him. However, local profile seems to count for little and Reform candidate Reece Langley won at a canter.
The Morley Borough Independents lost their Morley South ward in Leeds to Reform, although their cause was not helped when the incumbent left the group and eventually resigned her seat.
Two of the three Liberal Democrat victories were in highly marginal wards.
Wokingham’s Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates ward played a pivotal role at the May 2024 election. Conservative Norman Jorgenson, whose death caused this vacancy, topped the poll by just five votes, edging out one of the three Liberal Democrats.
This prevented the Liberal Democrats from winning a council majority. A small four-point swing this time proved enough to tip the ward away from the Conservatives.
Another split ward, Maldon West in Maldon, elected a Liberal Democrat in the 2023 election, with Flo Shaughnessy, for the Maldon Independents, just two votes behind, taking the second seat. The Independents and Labour chose not to contest the vacancy, allowing Reform to win a third of the votes and second place to the Liberal Democrats.
The Lib Dems’ third victory, in the West Sussex by-election for St Leonard’s Forest, came courtesy of a 34-point fall in the Conservative vote. Precious little of this support migrated to the winning Liberal Democrat, however, with Reform gaining a 30 per cent share from a standing start.
The sole Green gain, Severn ward in Stroud, closely followed a by-election win in Stroud Central last May.
The year previous saw a whole council election with the Greens winning 22 seats to Labour’s 20. Severn ward split, electing a Conservative and a Labour councillor. The Green’s Moya Shannon, a distant third then, has made up for that disappointment by overcoming Labour this time
| local by-elections |
|---|
| Amber Valley, Somercotes REF GAIN FROM LAB 5.7% over Lab Turnout 19.4% |
| Barnet, Whetstone LAB HELD 5.1% over Con Turnout 34.3% |
| Broadland, Acle REF GAIN FROM CON 11.8% over Con Turnout 38.4% |
| Calderdale, Skircoat REF GAIN FROM LAB 8.8% over Lab Turnout 38.5% |
| Carmarthenshire, Lliedi REF GAIN FROM LAB 19.2% over Lab Turnout 32.8% |
| Castle Point, Canvey Island Winter Gardens REF GAIN FROM CANVEY ISLAND IND PARTY 35.8% over Con Turnout 23.3% |
| Eastleigh, Eastleigh Central LIB DEM HELD 18.7% over Ref Turnout 28.9% |
| Eastleigh, Hedge End South LIB DEM HELD 18.6% over Con Turnout 33.3% |
| King’s Lynn & West Norfolk, Fairstead REF GAIN FROM LAB 1.9% over Lib Dem Turnout 17.4% |
| King’s Lynn & West Norfolk, North Lynn REF GAIN FROM LAB 27.7% over Lib Dem Turnout 13.2% |
| Leeds, Morley South REF GAIN FROM MORLEY BOROUGH IND 11.6% over MB Ind Turnout 31.7% |
| Lewes, Newhaven North LIB DEM HELD 22.9% over Ref Turnout 34.1% |
| Maldon, Maldon West LIB DEM GAIN FROM IND 6.2% over Ref Turnout 33.1% |
| Mid Suffolk, Haughley, Stowupland & Wetherden GREEN HELD 32.5% over Con Turnout 27.1% |
| Stoke-on-Trent, Birches Head and Northwood REF GAIN FROM LAB 37.1% over Lab Turnout 28.1% |
| Stroud, Severn GREEN GAIN FROM LAB 0.9% over Con Turnout 26.8% |
| Sutton, Carshalton South and Clockhouse LIB DEM HELD 28.3% over Con Turnout 40.8% |
| Tendring, Frinton REF GAIN FROM CON 30.2% over Con Turnout 42.0% |
| West Sussex, Burgess Hill North LIB DEM HELD 14.3% over Ref Turnout 26.0% |
| West Sussex, Hassocks and Burgess Hill South LIB DEM HELD 30.4% over Ref Turnout 31.0% |
| West Sussex, Horsham Riverside LIB DEM HELD 23.9% over Con Turnout 27.4% |
| West Sussex, St Leonard’s Forest LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 3.0% over Ref Turnout 23.0% |
| Wokingham, Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 7.1% over Lab Turnout 41.0% |
- See this excel spreadsheet LGA council results master 16 June 2025 for more stats on recent local by-elections