Throughout 2019, Labour’s local vote failed to impress – just five gains were made, only two of which were from the Conservatives. By contrast, Labour lost 18 seats, six of those defeats to the Conservatives.
The timeline of Labour’s struggle leading up to this General Election is illustrated by our by-election model. This uses the change in each party’s vote share from the previous May election, adjusting for the year in which the May election was held. Averaging vote share changes across multiple by-elections provides a national equivalent vote – a proxy for the vote intention responses obtained from surveys of public opinion.
The model shows Labour were ahead of the Conservatives in March 2018 but thereafter the situation changed. The party remained relatively competitive with the Conservatives until a sudden and dramatic change of fortune between January and February 2019.
Labour’s estimated 33 per cent national vote share in January fell three percentage points in February. This coincided with the defeat in the Commons of the then Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal and a chorus of Labour MPs calling for a second referendum.
By the summer, the model shows the Liberal Democrats overtaking Labour as the Conservative party’s principal rival. By late November 2019, the Conservative lead over Labour had reached 11 percentage points, close to the General Election outcome.
Whatever future direction the party takes, Labour must improve its standing in local government. It has been 17 years since Labour had more councillors than the Conservatives, despite the latter being in power for most of the time since then. Conservative councillors currently form a majority on more than four in 10 councils; Labour, just one in four.
Such was the scale of Labour’s defeat on 12 December, it now must set new records next time. A swing of 11.8 per cent from the Conservatives is required for Labour to win the smallest majority. To put that into perspective, it is two points higher than Labour achieved in 1997 and more than double the next highest swing – Margaret Thatcher’s when ousting Labour in 1979.
In the build-up to Tony Blair’s victory in 1997, Labour amassed an army of more than 10,000 councillors – 1,000 more than the Conservative and Liberal Democrat totals combined. The best opportunity for Labour to progress on this front passed last May when it made a net loss of seats. It will be 2023 before that part of the electoral cycle is repeated.
In terms of by-elections, Labour faces both an opportunity and a threat. The opportunity is that the Liberal Democrats, too, are bruised and battered. The effect on local party campaigning is unknown but Labour should be setting its sights high. The threat is that, in many council areas, there are new Independent groups forming, many of which have appeal as vehicles for protest voting.
Challenging Conservative dominance, both in local government and at Westminster, will be no easy matter.
| local by-elections |
|---|
| Boston, Kirton & Frampton CON HELD 4.5% over Ind Turnout 55.9% |
| Boston, Skirbeck CON HELD 27.8% over Lab Turnout 36.9% |
| Bury, Church CON HELD 19.3% over Lab Turnout 69.8% |
| Camden, Haverstock LAB HELD 42.7% over Green Turnout 62% |
| Cardiff, Llanishen CON GAIN FROM LAB 8.6% over Lab Turnout 27% |
| Chichester, Loxwood CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM 31.9% over Lib Dem Turnout 29.4% |
| Corby, Weldon & Gretton CON HELD 9.9% over Lab Turnout 65.3% |
| Dover, Guston, Kingsdown & St Margaret's CON HELD 38% over Lab Turnout 72.2% |
| East Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers Chichele CON HELD 26.6% over Lib Dem Turnout 71.6% |
| East Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers Lancaster CON HELD 25.3% over Lib Dem Turnout 81.9% |
| Exeter, Topsham CON HELD 11.2% over Lab Turnout 75.7% |
| Flintshire, Trelawnyd & Gwaenysgor CON HELD 19.9% over Lab Turnout 73.5% |
| Hackney, Clissold LAB HELD 32.5% over Green Turnout 72.1% |
| Horsham, Storrington & Washington CON HELD 34.9% over Lib Dem Turnout 72.9% |
| Hounslow, Feltham North CON GAIN FROM LAB 1.1% over Lab Turnout 53.7% |
| Hounslow, Heston West LAB HELD 39.8% over Con Turnout 57.2% |
| Huntingdonshire, Alconbury CON HELD 40.2% over Lib Dem Turnout 77.9% |
| Isle Of Wight, Newport West CON HELD 11.6% over Lab Turnout 68.2% |
| Islington, St. Georges LAB HELD 6.5% over Green Turnout 67.3% |
| Kettering, Desborough St. Giles CON HELD 16.8% over Lab Turnout 69.6% |
| Kings Lynn & W Norfolk, Upwell & Delph CON GAIN FROM IND 46.5% over Lab Turnout 65.5% |
| Kirklees, Colne Valley CON GAIN FROM LAB 12.1% over Lab Turnout 72.9% |
| Kirklees, Dewsbury East LAB HELD 8% over Con Turnout 57.4% |
| Lancaster, Overton CON HELD 9.9% over Lab Turnout 66.8% |
| Leeds, Wetherby CON HELD 38.8% over Lib Dem Turnout 75.3% |
| Leicestershire, Cosby & Countesthorpe CON HELD 43.2% over Lab Turnout 76% |
| Lincoln, Witham CON HELD 29.8% over Lab Turnout 66.7% |
| Liverpool, Clubmoor LAB HELD 80.6% over Lib Turnout 65.8% |
| Liverpool, Picton LAB HELD 72.5% over Green Turnout 57% |
| Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Holditch & Chesterton LAB HELD 6.6% over Con Turnout 50.1% |
| Oxfordshire, Wallingford GREEN GAIN FROM IND 10% over Con Turnout 30.2% |
| Reading, Kentwood CON HELD 8.1% over Lab Turnout 65.1% |
| Rhondda Cynon Taff, Ynyshir LAB GAIN FROM PLAID CYMRU 10.3% over PC Turnout 30.5% |
| Salford, Pendlebury LAB HELD 18.3% over Con Turnout 54.9% |
| Staffordshire, Watling South CON HELD 44.1% over Lab Turnout 65.8% |
| Tameside, Denton West LAB HELD 16.1% over Con Turnout 59.8% |
| Tamworth, Mercian CON HELD 30.1% over Lab Turnout 62.6% |
| Warwick, Warwick Myton & Heathcote CON HELD 14.5% over Lab Turnout 75% |
| West Lancashire, Birch Green LAB HELD 31% over Skelm Ind Turnout 22.1% |
| West Sussex, Bourne CON HELD 12.8% over Lib Dem Turnout 28.9% |
| Wiltshire, Trowbridge Lambrok LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 15.5% over Con Turnout 29.5% |
| Worthing, Salvington CON HELD 39.6% over Lib Dem Turnout 61.7% |
Author
Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher